Within 45 minutes of launching our first project we had our first organic backer. The Kubb project mentioned earlier had nine backers at the end of the first day. Buntastic, also mentioned earlier, had secured pledges from 16 people on its first day. The Pebble watch met its goal of $100,000 in a few hours.
Conversely, 10.6% of Kickstarter projects raise zero dollars over the entire course of their campaigns.
So here’s the theory – a Kickstarter campaign can be reasonably projected as successful or unsuccessful within hours of launch.
Because the Recently Launched section on Kickstarter showcases each project as soon as it launches, new projects get much, if not most, of their Kickstarter-driven traffic and attention on the first day. If, during that time, backers are not moved to pledge toward a project, it is unlikely that the project will be successful, as market demand for the product is widely tested on Kickstarter in the first few hours of launch.
Kickstarter statistics show that “81% of projects that raised more than 20% of their goal were successfully funded.” Because the first 20% of funds typically come early in a campaign, categorization into “successful” or “not successful” camps can be done very quickly.
This information is especially relevant when viewed through the lens of lean entrepreneurship – products can be launched, tested on a large scale, and proven or killed in a matter of hours.